CFA Refutes Arithmetic Error in Boric Government’s Debt Figures, Undermining Quiroz’s Claims

The Autonomous Fiscal Council (CFA) has issued a ruling that dismantles the main aspect of the controversy raised by Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz, definitively stating that there are no arithmetic errors in the debt projections of the latest Public Finance Report (IFP) from former President Gabriel Boric’s government. The announcement, disclosed in the semiannual report from the council, concludes that the sources and uses of financing in the IFP for the fourth quarter of 2025 are «internally consistent», effectively invalidating the technical basis of the accusation made by the administration of José Antonio Kast, which had questioned the credibility of inherited figures.

The controversy began last May, when Quiroz publicly pointed out a supposed inconsistency of nearly $9.6 trillion between the projected deficit and the increase in gross debt. According to the Secretary of State, between the IFP from the third and fourth quarters of 2025, the projected fiscal deficit for the period 2026-2030 increased by approximately $13 trillion, while the expected debt only rose by about $3.9 trillion.

However, according to El Mostrador, the CFA was clear in explaining that the difference between the larger accumulated deficit and the larger change in debt is explained by perfectly identifiable items within the accounting methodology employed.

The CFA also emphasized that on June 5, the Budget Directorate (Dipres) provided—at the council’s request—a report indicating that the fiscal path used replicates the scheme of the IFP4T25, and the deterioration of the finances directly translates to borrowing needs, with the evolution of the debt aligning coherently with relevant financial identities.

While the Council confirmed the numerical consistency, it warned that the lack of explicit disclosure of these assumptions limits the assessment of the forecasts, especially if they jeopardize the prudent debt ceiling (45% of GDP). Thus, it urged for more transparent, structured, and accessible methodological corrections for projecting gross debt.

Despite validating the arithmetic consistency, the Council cautioned that the lack of direct exposition of these assumptions complicates the evaluation of the projections, particularly when they may impact compliance with the prudent debt limit set at 45% of GDP. Therefore, it recommended moving towards clearer, defined, and transparent methodological adjustments for projecting gross debt.

This dual ruling, both from the CFA and Dipres, has technically sealed the arithmetic discussion and placed Quiroz’s accusation in an uncomfortable position, lacking verifiable numerical support.

Debt Projections

In its semiannual report, the agency anticipated that Dipres predicts a fiscal deficit of 3.7% of GDP. With the new calculation of the Structural Balance, this projection would lower to 2.8%, but continues to exceed the target of -2.6% set by the Treasury.

It noted that, over the past twenty years, public accounts have demonstrated structural weakening and that this phenomenon stems from legally established spending commitments based on revenue projections that ultimately turned out to be overly favorable. For this reason, it stressed that fiscal corrections must be durable, verifiable, and fully credible.

Regarding expenditures, the Council stated that the fiscal pressures reflected in the IFP from the first quarter of 2026 exceed the adjustments that the Treasury has committed to. The CFA projected that Central Government spending for 2026 will reach 24.1% of GDP, representing an additional US$1.422 billion beyond what was established in the Budget Law.

Meanwhile, Dipres estimates that gross debt will be at 43.1% of GDP in 2026, continuing to rise until it surpasses the prudent threshold in 2028 (45.4%) and will culminate at 46.5% of GDP by 2030. The CFA’s forecasts align with this trend; in its baseline scenario, the debt would peak at 48% of GDP by 2033.

Below, you can review the complete CFA report:

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Report-Semestral-del-CFA-06-2026 Download

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