El Ciudadano
Original article: En China la carrera de las baterías sólidas ya no es cosa de científicos: el litio chileno está en el centro del tablero
Chile is rich in lithium, but there’s a pressing concern: it doesn’t want to remain merely the «extraction yard» of the world. Thus, the recently published report by international consultancy SMM regarding solid-state batteries in the first half of 2026 deserves close attention from SQM, Codelco, and policymakers at La Moneda. This document reveals that the definitive leap in this technology is no longer just a laboratory promise; it’s a race towards mass production that is happening right now, determining who will control the complete lithium value chain, beyond just extracting the raw material.
By Bruno Sommer
To clarify, solid-state batteries have long been regarded as the «dream come true» for the automotive industry: they promise longer mileage per charge, fast recharges, and no fire risks, yet they have always seemed a distant future. That future now has a date. The first half of 2026 is poised to be the time for laying out plans, organizing factories, and standardizing technical criteria. The current second half marks the sprint: the first models featuring this technology are set to hit the streets, and the frontrunners for 2027 will be determined. It’s important to note that this entire technological framework largely depends on lithium carbonate and hydroxide extracted from the Atacama salt flat.
The report indicates a significant shift in prices and production volumes. Until recently, the key materials for these batteries cost as much as silver: lithium sulfide dropped from 2,000 to 1,530 yuan per kilo in just six months, a decline of 23.5%. What’s more critical is that with the initial production lines starting up to hundreds of tons, prices are expected to plummet another 20% in the coming months. Gone are the days of purchasing these powders «by the spoonful» in a lab; they will now be bought «by the ton» in real factories. This is a significant sign that the industry is maturing, and for Chile, the message is clear: if China is lowering the costs of processed materials, the advantage of having the world’s cheapest brine becomes even more strategic. However, it also prompts the question of whether we will continue as just a rock supplier or leap into fine chemistry.
Another major takeaway from the report is that China is no longer playing at testing; it is building a complete ecosystem. In the first half of the year, large-scale factories began operations, including the 3.5 gigawatt-hours facility in Qingtao and the 2 GWh in Xinjie Energy, alongside projects in Shanghai and Hohhot with investments exceeding 5,000 million yuan (around 700 million dollars). Of particular concern for Chile is China’s new regulation that prohibits calling a battery «solid» if it loses more than 0.5% of its weight when heated, indicating it contains liquid. In essence, they are organizing the market to eliminate deception and enforce stringent quality standards. Meanwhile, here we continue debating the timelines for the Lithium Statute and contract definitions, while the market is moving at a much faster pace. It’s not just China that is in the race; Japan, Korea, and the United States are also pursuing advancements, but SMM’s report states unequivocally that they lag one to two years behind China in mass production capacity. This indicates that, for now, the most aggressive demand and transformation hub is across the Pacific, and Chile needs to decide whether it wants to compete in that arena or remain a spectator.
The second half of the year is bringing more tests. Dongfeng is already mass-producing its solid-state battery of 350 Wh/kg, capable of over 1,000 kilometers of autonomy, while the MG4X model with semi-solid battery is now being delivered to the public. Additionally, companies like Tinci Materials and Zhenhua are launching lines producing a thousand tons of sulfide electrolyte, which requires high-purity lithium to operate. What does this have to do with Chile? Well, SQM has formed partnerships with Gotion High-Tech, and Codelco is seeking technological partners for its value-adding strategy. If the Chinese are moving from lab tests to factories producing thousands of tons, the chance for Chilean lithium to become integrated into cathodes and electrolytes (rather than just powder for export) is now, not in five years. If we delay regulatory definitions, we risk being left with the cheapest lithium in the world, sold in bulk, while others reap the benefits of patents and industrial processes.
The report itself projects that 2027 will not be the year of massive explosions in production, but rather the year of initial forays: only 1 GWh of total production, with just a few thousand demonstration cars. The true large-scale market for semi-solid batteries, which will cost the same as current ones, is expected to solidify only around 2030. By 2035, it is estimated that only 10% of cars globally will use fully solid batteries. This gives us a few years to position ourselves, but the window will not remain open forever. The Chinese are already establishing their factories, the Koreans are adjusting their timelines, and the Europeans are pushing forward with environmental regulations demanding lithium traceability. Chile has the purest raw material, the cheapest renewable energy in the region, and world-class mining experience. Yet the lingering question is whether we will be the «brine country» or the «cell country.»
The first semester of this year has been about planning and forging strategic alliances. The second half will focus on building and manufacturing. The decisions made in the coming months at negotiation tables among the state, private companies, and technology partners will determine whether Chilean lithium remains at the salt flat’s doorstep or reaches the engines of future cars. The era of «magic batteries» is no longer just on the horizon—it has knocked on the door, and that door is in the Pacific, with «China» written in capital letters. Let’s hope that in Chile, we are ready to open it, not just with a shovel and truck but with technology and patents in hand.
By Bruno Sommer
La entrada Chile’s Lithium Dominance at the Heart of the Solid-State Battery Race with China se publicó primero en El Ciudadano.
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