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Original article: Colombia irá a una segunda vuelta: Iván Cepeda se enfrentará al candidato de la ultra derecha, Abelardo de la Espriella

Colombia to Define Its Presidential Path on June 21 between the Ultra-Right De la Espriella and Historical Pact’s Candidate, Iván Cepeda

Colombia will enter a presidential runoff on June 21, with Abelardo de la Espriella from the Defenders of the Homeland movement and Iván Cepeda from the ruling Historical Pact, based on the official results of the National Civil Registry. With 99.03% of polling stations reported, De la Espriella secured 43.73% of the votes (10,270,049 votes) compared to 40.91% for Cepeda (9,614,016 votes), while Paloma Valencia trails in third place with 6.92%, various news sources reported.

As indicated by the initial bulletins from the National Registry, with over 97% of polling stations reporting around 5:20 PM, the trend appeared irreversible confirming the face-off between the two candidates on June 21 , reported El Espectador. De la Espriella managed to pull ahead with a margin of over 667,000 votes over Cepeda.

«With this trend, these two campaigns will compete on June 21 to determine whether there will be a new shift in Colombia’s political paradigm or if there will be a continuation of leftist power,» highlighted the Colombian media. The official figures consolidated with 99.03% of polling stations reporting provide definitive numbers for the first round, according to data disseminated by Diario RED (Latin America) from sources in the Registry.

The outcome signifies an unexpected turn from pre-election polls, which predominantly favored Iván Cepeda going into the first round. However, De la Espriella, who consistently ranked second, achieved a significant surge, emerging as the most voted candidate on this Sunday, May 31, according to an analysis from El Espectador.

The major loser of the day was the uribista candidate, Paloma Valencia, who fell to a distant third place with just 6.92% of the votes, representing 1,597,411 votes. Diario RED attributes this outcome to «the deep polarization and political fragmentation that the country is experiencing, along with direct intervention by Trumpism.» The winner on June 21 will assume power on August 7, succeeding Gustavo Petro.

Initial Insights

The initial insights from the rapid count, with 99% of polling stations reporting, bring a major surprise to the Colombian election night. According to information gathered by El Ciudadano through its director, Javier Pineda, the ultra-right candidate took the lead, reversing all projections. «Once again all the polls were wrong,» the media concludes, reflecting the challenges of traditional polling methods in capturing voter movements in a highly polarized environment.

Regarding the ruling party, Iván Cepeda achieved a vote tally close to projections, landing around 40% of the votes, according to an analysis by El Ciudadano.

A noteworthy detail is that the Historical Pact candidate is estimated to have garnered more than 8 million votes, surpassing Gustavo Petro’s first-round tally from 2022, indicating a solid support base. «It will be a challenge to secure votes in the runoff, though not impossible,» warns the media’s director.

The voting transfer map shows two significant corridors. Most of Sergio Fajardo’s electorate (4.26%) and Claudia López’s (1%) votes are expected to naturally lean towards Iván Cepeda, according to projections from El Ciudadano. On the other hand, votes from Paloma Valencia (6.9%) should largely shift towards Abelardo de la Espriella, solidifying the right-wing bloc. However, the transfer won’t be automatic: «the clash between these last two was intense in the first round,» the media cautions, and both liberal and «center» sectors might end up supporting Cepeda.

The most revealing detail from the historical analysis is noted by El Ciudadano as it recalls the first round of 2022. At that time, the total of votes for candidates opposing Gustavo Petro surpassed the votes obtained by the then-candidate. However, Petro managed to prevail in the runoff by over 3%. «The sums are not arithmetic and heavily depend on campaign outreach in the next 20 days,» concludes the media, leaving the contest open for June 21.

Meanwhile, the candidates celebrated election night at different locations in the country. De la Espriella was preparing his speech at the Malecón del Río in Barranquilla, the same iconic venue where he concluded his campaign on May 24, according to El Espectador. Iván Cepeda monitored the results from the Red Room of the Tequendama Hotel in Bogotá, surrounded by the Historical Pact caucus and his closest advisors.

The electoral day unfolded with unprecedented security measures. President Gustavo Petro voted in the Plaza de Bolívar and raised concerns about the National Registry’s disregard by not being the owner of the vote counting software. The advisor to the National Electoral Council, Christian Quiroz, stated that 1,500 international observers and over 397,000 citizen witnesses monitored the polling stations to ensure the transparency of the process that will determine Petro’s successor, according to coverage from El Espectador.

La entrada Colombia Heads to Presidential Runoff: Iván Cepeda to Face Ultra-Right Candidate Abelardo de la Espriella se publicó primero en El Ciudadano.