El Ciudadano
Original article: Boom del cobre: precio marca récord histórico por problemas de oferta y concentración de stock en EE.UU.
On Friday, December 12, the price of copper closed at US$ 5.36 per pound, marking a 1.5% increase compared to the previous week’s close. This result sets a new all-time high, raising the average annual price to US$ 4.47 per pound, which is 7.5% higher than the same period in 2024, according to the Weekly International Copper Market Report.
The remarkable surge in copper prices is driven by a complex interplay of tight supply and global financial movements.
«One of the main factors supporting the price has been the persistent concern over supply,» states the report produced by the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco).
This concern is based on «operational disruptions in key mines» and, concurrently, on «the diversion of metal towards the United States.»
This massive flow towards the American market has had a significant impact on inventory levels. Warehouses registered in Comex (New York’s metal exchange) have seen their reserves grow to unprecedented levels, currently exceeding 439,000 short tons, equivalent to approximately 399,000 metric tons. Analysis indicates that this figure reflects «an increase of over 300% since March.»
Globally, the visible inventory across the three major exchanges (London, Shanghai, and New York) totals 661,071 tons, with an accumulated annual increase of 55.1%.
Concentration of Stock in the U.S.
However, this apparent excess of stock has not exerted downward pressure on global prices. Instead, it has created a distortion in the perception of availability.
«While global visible inventory has increased, the strong concentration of copper in the United States has generated a perception of lower availability in other regions, reinforcing premiums for immediate delivery outside that market,» the report warned.
The Fed, Dollar Depreciation, and Copper Prices
The macro-financial scenario played a key role in the weekly volatility. In the days leading up to the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, the strength of the dollar and rising Treasury yields put downward pressure on copper prices, leading some investors to secure profits.
«The ten-year Treasury yield reached levels close to 4.19%, its highest since late September,» the document noted.
However, the anticipated shift by monetary authorities changed the outlook. «Subsequently, the widely expected 25 basis point rate cut, along with the announcement of short-term Treasury bond purchases, helped alleviate financial conditions,» it indicated.
These signals prompted a depreciation of the dollar, a factor traditionally positive for metals, which «provided support for prices and favored a new bullish momentum for copper.»
Chinese Demand and Market Expectations
From the demand side, signals from China, the world’s largest consumer, were mixed. Data showed a short-term moderation: refined copper imports fell by 2.5% month-on-month in November to 427,000 tons, while the import premium (Yangshan premium) decreased to US$ 32 per ton, indicating greater caution among buyers in response to high prices.
However, the medium-term outlook appears more robust. The report highlights that «the official commitment from Chinese authorities to maintain a proactive fiscal policy in 2026 contributed to sustaining medium-term demand expectations, mitigating the impact of the recent moderation in physical purchases.»
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