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Original article: Arde Europa: Chile con Kast, negacionista-climático, deberá lidiar con un Niño extremo

By Leopoldo Lavín Mujica

As Western Europe grapples with one of the earliest heat waves in history, with temperatures soaring above 40 degrees Celsius in France and resulting in multiple fatalities, the continent confronts a structural issue that serves as a global warning.

Recent warnings from climate advisors to the British government highlight that the country’s current infrastructures «were built for a climate that no longer exists,» urging urgent adaptation to global warming.

This same architectural and urban vulnerability faced by cities like London, Paris, and Madrid—where heat increasingly transforms daily infrastructures into stress zones—could be similarly or more harshly applied to Chile. However, unlike Europe, Chile contends with this challenge under a government that, rather than reinforcing adaptation, has embraced climate denial as a political banner.

Next summer in Chile will be anything but ordinary. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed the arrival of El Niño in the South Pacific, and scientific forecasts predict significantly above-average temperatures, particularly in the central and southern regions of the country.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has raised alarms about the high likelihood of global manifestations of El Niño, with impacts that include disruptions in rainfall patterns, risks to agricultural production, and scenarios of extreme heat.

Prediction models agree that this El Niño episode could reach exceptional intensity, with temperature anomalies exceeding 3 °C in the tropical Pacific, ranking it among the most intense events since 1950.

The combination of this natural phenomenon and global warming, as oceans accumulate unprecedented heat and global temperatures hover around 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, amplifies the risk of extreme heat waves, wildfires, and prolonged droughts.

In this context, the stance of the new Chilean government is, at the very least, concerning. President-elect José Antonio Kast has appointed Patricio Dussaillant—a close collaborator and advisor of the Republican Party—as the president of the National Television board, a decision that has sparked controversy due to his public criticism of scientific evidence regarding climate change.

Dussaillant, director of the Ideas Republicanas think tank, has openly questioned the existence of human-induced global warming in public statements, echoing the climate denial rhetoric that Donald Trump has promoted in the United States.

Kast himself has avoided mentioning the climate crisis in his government agenda, and his party has been criticized for its ties to the emerging climate flat-earth discourse within the global far-right. As Pilar Moraga, director of the Climate Science and Resilience Center (CR2), has warned, the lack of renewal in pro-science political leadership in Chile leaves room for skeptics and delays climate action.

While the European government activates heat alert systems and debates how to redesign its cities for a climate that no longer exists, Chile seems to be moving in the opposite direction. Conditions for wildfires—which have already devastated the country in recent seasons—are intensified with every heatwave: high temperatures, low humidity, strong winds, and accumulated drought create an ideal scenario for fire outbreaks to spark and spread quickly.

Experts warn that climate change is exacerbating these factors, especially during the summer, and the traditional firefighting model proves inadequate against a warming, drier, and more variable climate. The experiences of the mega-fires in 2017, 2023, and 2024—resulting in immeasurable human and material losses—demonstrate that Chile cannot afford to ignore scientific evidence. Yet, this is precisely what a government that denies the crisis does as the Pacific warms and temperatures continue to rise.

The summer of 2026 looms as a critical test for Chile’s resilience. With El Niño amplified by global warming, a government that dismisses climate science, and infrastructures and prevention systems that have already shown their limitations in previous seasons, the country faces a perfect storm.

Europe has at least begun to recognize that its architecture was designed for a different climate. In contrast, Chile appears determined to build its future on the denial of a present that is already scorching.

Leopoldo Lavín Mujica

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