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Original article: “Lo más grave no ha llegado aún”: FAO advierte mayor inflación alimentaria tras conflicto en el estrecho Ormuz
Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz Threatens Global Food Prices
The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is not just a temporary disruption to maritime transport; it marks the beginning of a systemic food crisis that could trigger a serious global food price crisis within the next six to twelve months, warned a United Nations agency on Wednesday.
The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and one-third of the global trade of fertilizers and electronic components passes, was blocked by Iran following a U.S. and Israeli attack that took place on February 28.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), urgent emergency measures are essential to avert this scenario. These include establishing alternative trade routes, limiting export restrictions, safeguarding humanitarian flows, and creating reserves to cope with increased transportation costs.
«Now is the time to start seriously considering how to increase the adaptive capacity of countries, strengthen their resilience to this bottleneck, and minimize potential impacts,» stated Máximo Torero, Chief Economist of the FAO, in a statement.
This involves analyzing «the interventions of governments, international financial organizations, the private sector, as well as UN agencies and other research centers, to assist countries in better managing the current situation.»
From Energy Shock to Food Inflation
The FAO warns that the time to act is rapidly closing. The decisions made now by farmers and governments regarding the use of fertilizers, imports, financing, and crop choices will determine if a severe global food price crisis erupts in the next six to twelve months.
The repercussions are already noticeable. The FAO’s food price index, which tracks the monthly price changes of a basket of globally traded food commodities, rose for the third consecutive month in April, driven by high energy costs and disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
The impact is propagating in successive phases: first energy, then fertilizers and seeds, followed by agricultural yields, an increase in raw material prices, and finally a surge in food inflation.
To mitigate these effects, the FAO recommends utilizing alternative land and maritime routes, particularly across eastern Arabian Peninsula, western Saudi Arabia, and the Red Sea. “However, these routes have limited capacity, making it essential to avoid export restrictions imposed by major producers,” stated David Laborde, director of the FAO’s Agricultural Economics Division.
Alternative Corridors to Bypass Hormuz
More generally, the UN agency has compiled a series of policy recommendations to address the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, the FAO suggests:
- Establishing alternative logistical corridors to bypass the Strait of Hormuz
- Avoiding export restrictions, particularly on energy, fertilizers, and inputs
- Exempting food aid from restrictions
It also recommends promoting intercropping and better targeting support through digital records, rather than blanket subsidies, to more effectively reach vulnerable rural households and small farmers, especially in Africa.
In the long term, the FAO urges the need to diversify ports, corridors, storage systems, and logistics globally to minimize future bottleneck risks. Additionally, it seeks to strengthen transport networks and develop common soil mapping and input tools in collaboration with the fertilizer industry.
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