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Original article: La receta de Milei se da vuelta: inflación de 2,5% en noviembre, alimentos por encima del promedio y un 2026 sin alivio a la vista
Milei’s Economic Recipe Falters: Inflation Hits 2.5% in November, Food Prices Surge, No Relief in Sight for 2026
The National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina confirmed the least desired scenario for an economy mired in recession: inflation in November surged to 2.5%, establishing a high baseline for monthly increases that has remained unbroken since May.
This figure, surpassing most analysts’ expectations, highlights the strains on the economic plan of the country’s libertarian president, Javier Milei, and his Economy Minister, Luis Caputo, who, despite an intervened dollar and a significant import opening, are unable to stem the rising prices affecting the quality of life for Argentinians.
The November index anticipates a December with soaring prices, and according to projections from the digital outlet Página/12, no «more favorable lower figures» are expected until after April 2026.
Meanwhile, the accumulated inflation for the year has reached 27.9%, and in the last twelve months, it has climbed to 31.4%.
Milei’s Perfect Storm: Tariff Hikes and Food Costs Take the Lead
According to the official report, the divisions that led the inflation increase were: housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels (3.4%); transportation (3%); and critically, food and non-alcoholic beverages (2.8%). This latter category, essential for the basic basket, was above the general average, undermining a key strategy of the La Libertad Avanza government.
The cited outlet pointed out that the resurgence in food prices has ultimately worked against Milei’s strategy of refusing to update the Consumer Price Index (CPI) formula agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—which places more emphasis on services, like utility rates—arguing it underestimated the real inflation.
However, the current spike in basic goods, which this formula aimed at reflecting less, has ended up amplifying the official statistics.
According to food manufacturers, prices have begun to rise precipitously because costs have soared, fuel prices have increased, and even without registering sales, they have been forced to raise product prices to recover revenue when quantities are absent. This «cost-push inflation» phenomenon amid depressed demand is one of the paradoxes of the ongoing crisis in the southern nation.
Contrast with the Past and the Shadow of Recession
The situation becomes more alarming when contrasting it with periods of growth. According to an analysis by Página/12: «Milei is experiencing more inflation than there was during the most significant growth period in recent times.»
The outlet recalled that in 2011, annual inflation was 9.5%, while in 2015 it reached 25%, and during those years, economic activity grew by 10 points and 2.9 points, respectively; whereas in 2025, «with the economy in free fall and statistical growth driven by agriculture, oil, and financial speculation, inflation is well above 30 points.»
This recessionary factor is central. The decline in purchasing power—with salaries lagging behind inflation month after month—acts as a limit to consumption, yet it fails to fully curb the upward momentum of prices, especially in essential goods.
Página/12 highlighted that during the 2011-2015 period, «the Kirchnerism government decided on a highly debatable tariff freeze that benefited wallets during periods of higher or lower inflation.»
Meat Prices Drive Inflation
A detailed analysis of the Food and Beverage sector by the Center for Political Economy (CEPA) shed light on internal dynamics.
The agency noted that «on average, this sector moved by 2.8% monthly (it was 2.3% in October, 1.9% in September, 1.4% in August, 1.9% in July, 0.6% in June, 0.5% in May, 2.9% in April, 5.9% in March, 3.2% in February, and 1.8% in January).»
It added that «the evolution of prices in November was influenced by a 19.3% increase in wholesale meat prices, with 16.7% for beef and veal respectively, fruits (+11.4%), and vegetables (+3.7%), alongside chicken (+5.6%) and pork (capón +3.9%), contrasted with stagnant consumption and wage caps.»
In the breakdown of mass-consumption products in Greater Buenos Aires, the highest increases were recorded in fruits and vegetables (eight products among the top 20, with an average increase of 14.1%) and meats and derivatives (six products among the top 20, with an average increase of 9.1%).
Gloomy Outlook and a Resilient Inflation Floor
With these numbers, November solidifies as a month of negative inflection. What the government presented as a necessary «reorganization» through tariffs and the liberalization of imports to regulate internal prices faces the reality of inflation stubbornly refusing to drop below 2% monthly, primarily punishing lower-income sectors through food costs.
The shock recipe, which promised to «quickly shake off» inflation, now faces its toughest test. Projections for 2025 are already being revised upwards, and the long-awaited «relief» for the pockets of Argentinians seems to have vanished, with its arrival now forecasted, at best, for the spring of 2026. In the meantime, the inflation floor appears more resistant than ever.
La entrada Milei’s Economic Recipe Falters: Inflation Hits 2.5% in November, Food Prices Surge, No Relief in Sight for 2026 se publicó primero en El Ciudadano.
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