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El Ciudadano

Original article: El espejismo de la “mano dura”: fracaso del modelo Bukele en Ecuador y Honduras expone riesgos de exportar megacárceles sin garantías judiciales

The security approach championed by Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, which relies on mega-prisons, mass detentions, and states of emergency, has proven to be a dangerous illusion when transplanted to different realities. While the far-right president claims to have drastically reduced homicides in his country, Ecuador and Honduras demonstrate that the ‘iron fist’ recipe does not work in contexts characterized by institutional weakness that create a radically different scenario.

The initial euphoria over replicating the Salvadoran model has collided with a harsh reality: violence cannot be contained with improvisational solutions or with rhetoric that criminalizes indiscriminately.

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa declared an «internal armed conflict» in January 2024 following an unprecedented surge in violence that included prison riots and an armed assault on a television station. Inspired by Bukele’s experience, he pushed for the construction of high-security prisons like «El Encuentro,» guided by the same teams that designed the Counter-Terrorism Confinement Center (Cecot) in El Salvador. However, the results have been devastating: the murder rate in Ecuador closed 2025 at 50.9 per 100,000 inhabitants, equivalent to 9,200 crimes, highlighting the failure of a strategy that prioritizes militarization without curbing violence. Extortion rates multiplied, kidnappings became routine, and criminal gangs expanded their territorial control amid military pressure.

Honduras, under Xiomara Castro’s government, also adopted states of exception and militarized security since 2022, following Bukele’s lead. Nevertheless, the homicide rate remained around 23 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025, showing no sustained reduction comparable to that in El Salvador. The Central American nation continues to be one of the most violent in the region, leading experts to openly question the effectiveness of this imported approach. A poignant question resonates among analysts: why does the ‘iron fist’ model fail when it leaves Salvadoran borders?

«Ibuprofen for Treating Cancer»

Daniel Pontón, a security analyst, provided a crucial explanation: «Bukele faced territorial gang structures; Noboa faces transnational criminal economies». This distinction is vital to understanding the failure in Ecuador. While El Salvador dealt with organized gangs in specific neighborhoods, organized crime in Ecuador operates within the frameworks of global drug trafficking, cocaine routes, and alliances with Mexican and Colombian cartels.

In a conversation with El País, Pontón warned that applying the Salvadoran model in this context is like administering ibuprofen to treat cancer.

The political appeal of the ‘iron fist’ transcends Latin American borders. The European far-right has begun to express interest in Bukele’s model. Jordan Bardella, president of the French party Rassemblement National, recently referred to the Salvadoran penitentiary system to address overcrowding issues in France, noting that 40,000 places were constructed in El Salvador within eight months. This oversimplified discourse, which overlooks systematic human rights violations, resonates with leaders seeking quick, visually impactful solutions to complex problems to promote on social media.

The Dangerous ‘Bukele Model’ for Gaining Popularity

Sonja Wolf, a researcher at the Pan American University and author of «Mano Dura» — a book exposing gang control policies in El Salvador — warned BBC Mundo that «one must be careful when speaking of the ‘Bukele model,’ because it is not a model in reality».

She referred to the lack of international understanding regarding the fact that in the political regime Bukele has consolidated in El Salvador, characterized as an «electoral autocracy,» the state of exception serves a dual purpose: combating crime and reinforcing the legitimacy and image that his administration needs to maintain high levels of popularity to remain in power.

Amid Bukele’s ‘iron fist’, organizations like Cristosal and Human Rights Watch have documented widespread arbitrary detentions without judicial oversight, torture, mistreatment, and forced disappearances at the Cecot.

They have reported that over 92,000 people have been detained since March 2022, many without sufficient evidence, and hundreds of innocents remain incarcerated despite having release orders. Similarly, United Nations experts have warned that prolonged detention without access to legal assistance constitutes a serious violation of international law.

An Illusion Promising Security, But Delivering Human Rights Violations and Violence

The Bukele model continues to gain followers even where results are lacking. In Chile, President José Antonio Kast has failed to contain insecurity as he promised during his electoral campaign, even adjusting his cabinet due to the absence of a plan in this area, impacting his low approval ratings within just over 100 days of governance.

In Costa Rica, where Bukele was invited to lay the first stone of a replica prison of the Cecot, the debate over hardening security policies is growing despite the absence of an army and a tradition of guarantees. In Colombia, the similarly far-right Abelardo de la Espriella promised to build 7 mega-prisons based on the Salvadoran model.

The lesson seems clear: without judicial guarantees, without strengthening institutions, and without understanding the specific nature of organized crime in each territory, the ‘iron fist’ becomes an illusion that promises security but delivers rights violations and perpetuates violence.